Sort of a side note, but one takeaway I’ve had from the whole FTX fiasco—particularly given SBF’s comments here—is that being really careful about teaching and understanding Kelly betting is more important than I would have thought.
Yep, I had been wanting to write this sequence for months, but FTX caused me to sprint for a week until it was all done, because it seems like now is the time people are especially hungry for this theory.
This sequence was going to be my main priority for December (and Kelly betting was going to be my most central example). I thought the main reason EAs needed it was to be able to not feel guilting every time they stop to have fun, to not get Pascal’s mugged by calculations about the amount of matter in the universe, to not let longtermism take over the entire EA movement, to have fewer internal politics related issues, and to be more scout-mindset-like to take Julia’s term. The Kelly betting was supposed to be more of an analogy about putting all your eggs in one basket.
Then, I suddenly quickly updated on how much the EA community needed these memes.
Sort of a side note, but one takeaway I’ve had from the whole FTX fiasco—particularly given SBF’s comments here—is that being really careful about teaching and understanding Kelly betting is more important than I would have thought.
Yep, I had been wanting to write this sequence for months, but FTX caused me to sprint for a week until it was all done, because it seems like now is the time people are especially hungry for this theory.
This sequence was going to be my main priority for December (and Kelly betting was going to be my most central example). I thought the main reason EAs needed it was to be able to not feel guilting every time they stop to have fun, to not get Pascal’s mugged by calculations about the amount of matter in the universe, to not let longtermism take over the entire EA movement, to have fewer internal politics related issues, and to be more scout-mindset-like to take Julia’s term. The Kelly betting was supposed to be more of an analogy about putting all your eggs in one basket.
Then, I suddenly quickly updated on how much the EA community needed these memes.