(this statement is pretty conventional around here)
note that “hold an opinion” is a framing that doesn’t match my experience. I consider opinions and assign probabilities to their predictions. I don’t really “hold” any of them—more that I use some models more than others, and give them a bit more weight than others. None of them are zero, none 1.
It would be interesting to categorize the “seductiveness” of arguments and cross-check that against the importance of decisions that can be made with the opinion. I think you’ll find that a LOT of opinions are meaningless—they exist ONLY for signaling value. And a lot have subtext or models of human nature or distribution of traits that aren’t discussed separately, but are deeply entangled in what cluster of opinions one chooses to state (different than “holds”).
(this statement is pretty conventional around here)
note that “hold an opinion” is a framing that doesn’t match my experience. I consider opinions and assign probabilities to their predictions. I don’t really “hold” any of them—more that I use some models more than others, and give them a bit more weight than others. None of them are zero, none 1.
It would be interesting to categorize the “seductiveness” of arguments and cross-check that against the importance of decisions that can be made with the opinion. I think you’ll find that a LOT of opinions are meaningless—they exist ONLY for signaling value. And a lot have subtext or models of human nature or distribution of traits that aren’t discussed separately, but are deeply entangled in what cluster of opinions one chooses to state (different than “holds”).