No adult updates their probability that dragons are real after reading Game of Thrones
Without fiction, the hypothesis “dragon” would not even exist in our minds. We are wasting cultural bandwidth on this concept, and our probability estimation of it is orders of magnitude more than if we did not have it plastered everywhere in fiction.
such that you update on them.
This is a valid point, and I think an extreme case of it can be seen in fundamentalist religions. But my prior is that anyone who understands the argument the OP has presented, is smart enough to curate the non-fiction they consume such that they end up vastly better informed.
Even outdated, dumbed-down popsci books usually make one better informed than the default cultural memes. Usually, the important themes are correct; e.g., you’re more or less guaranteed to see spaced repetition as an effective tactic if you read popsci books on learning. The failure mode is probably garbage like The Secret that is easy enough to filter.
Without fiction, the hypothesis “dragon” would not even exist in our minds. We are wasting cultural bandwidth on this concept, and our probability estimation of it is orders of magnitude more than if we did not have it plastered everywhere in fiction.
This is a valid point, and I think an extreme case of it can be seen in fundamentalist religions. But my prior is that anyone who understands the argument the OP has presented, is smart enough to curate the non-fiction they consume such that they end up vastly better informed.
Even outdated, dumbed-down popsci books usually make one better informed than the default cultural memes. Usually, the important themes are correct; e.g., you’re more or less guaranteed to see spaced repetition as an effective tactic if you read popsci books on learning. The failure mode is probably garbage like The Secret that is easy enough to filter.