I think there is an obvious signal that could be used: a forecast of how much MIRI will like the research when asked in 5 years. (Note that I don’t mean just asking MIRI now, but rather something like prediction markets or super-forecasters to predict what MIRI will say 5 years from now.)
Basically, if the forecast is above average, anyone who trusts MIRI should fund them.
I think there is an obvious signal that could be used: a forecast of how much MIRI will like the research when asked in 5 years. (Note that I don’t mean just asking MIRI now, but rather something like prediction markets or super-forecasters to predict what MIRI will say 5 years from now.)
Basically, if the forecast is above average, anyone who trusts MIRI should fund them.