I think you’re starting with the wrong prior. It’s very distantly relevant whether there are aliens in the universe (or even in our past lightcone). It’s important what is the prior for “aliens physically present on earth, now, at a scale (quantity and size) and tech level that makes them very intermittently and unreliably detectable”. The second is orders of magnitude smaller than the first.
I do agree with your logic about the inequalities, but the magnitude of difference matters a lot. I give pretty low values for p[whistleblower|aliens] - p[whistleblower|no aliens] and the like, EVEN WHILE agreeing that it’s greater than zero.
I agree with your conclusion, including the fact that we need some value for p[aliens that could easily remain hidden, but are screwing with us], and that this may even be the majority of the weight for p[our observations|aliens].
I think you’re starting with the wrong prior. It’s very distantly relevant whether there are aliens in the universe (or even in our past lightcone). It’s important what is the prior for “aliens physically present on earth, now, at a scale (quantity and size) and tech level that makes them very intermittently and unreliably detectable”. The second is orders of magnitude smaller than the first.
I do agree with your logic about the inequalities, but the magnitude of difference matters a lot. I give pretty low values for p[whistleblower|aliens] - p[whistleblower|no aliens] and the like, EVEN WHILE agreeing that it’s greater than zero.
I agree with your conclusion, including the fact that we need some value for p[aliens that could easily remain hidden, but are screwing with us], and that this may even be the majority of the weight for p[our observations|aliens].