What I like about the UFO-stuff is that like early Covid it is a nice benchmark to see which public pundits are thinking clearly and which aren’t.
Often if public pundits make a call, it requires detailed knowledge of some kind—which means that I can’t really assess it and it’s not clear how well the ability to make this call generalises to other issues.
But the UFOs and early Covid are pretty uncomplicated, I think they give a decent signal how calibrated someone is.
(he said cleverly neglecting to state whether aliens are likely or unlikely)
What I like about the UFO-stuff is that like early Covid it is a nice benchmark to see which public pundits are thinking clearly and which aren’t.
Often if public pundits make a call, it requires detailed knowledge of some kind—which means that I can’t really assess it and it’s not clear how well the ability to make this call generalises to other issues.
But the UFOs and early Covid are pretty uncomplicated, I think they give a decent signal how calibrated someone is.
(he said cleverly neglecting to state whether aliens are likely or unlikely)