Hm. I can see that being a lower bound, for people getting covid, but I don’t think the 1/n and the power of n are suitably connected for it to be a very accurate estimate.
Though overtime, the number of times to get exposed is going up, and viewing the risk of getting it as going down (as we learn how to mitigate covid risks better) seems to paint a picture with very broad strokes that’s somewhat accurate overall.
If a bunch of people spread out a million microcovids over a year, about 63% will get covid. People assume “wouldn’t they all get it by then?” But to get over 99% it would actually take about 4.6 million microcovids!
Hm. I can see that being a lower bound, for people getting covid, but I don’t think the 1/n and the power of n are suitably connected for it to be a very accurate estimate.
Though overtime, the number of times to get exposed is going up, and viewing the risk of getting it as going down (as we learn how to mitigate covid risks better) seems to paint a picture with very broad strokes that’s somewhat accurate overall.
If a bunch of people spread out a million microcovids over a year, about 63% will get covid. People assume “wouldn’t they all get it by then?” But to get over 99% it would actually take about 4.6 million microcovids!