If you do future surveys of this sort, I’d like you to ask people for their probabilities rather than just their best guesses. If people are uncertain but decently calibrated, I’d argue there’s not much of a problem; if people are confidently wrong, I’d argue there’s a real problem.
If you do future surveys of this sort, I’d like you to ask people for their probabilities rather than just their best guesses. If people are uncertain but decently calibrated, I’d argue there’s not much of a problem; if people are confidently wrong, I’d argue there’s a real problem.