Musk is very interesting in his regard. He didn’t start SpaceX and Tesla because he reasoned himself into those projects having a high chance of commercial success.
He choose them because he believed in those goals. He’s driven by passion towards those goals.
Even if I agree with you on the goals (I can claim he used meta-rationality here, in the sense that someone should try to make humans interplanetary species, even if he thought his chance of success was less than 50%)
a lot the thinking that made him arrive at SpaceX seemed to be “one can actually do this way cheaper than the currently accepted standards, based on cost of materials etc”
I don’t think Jonah or I argues that you should never make calculations. Musks did make many decisions on that path and from the outside it’s hard to get an overview of what drives which decision.
Musk is very interesting in his regard. He didn’t start SpaceX and Tesla because he reasoned himself into those projects having a high chance of commercial success.
He choose them because he believed in those goals. He’s driven by passion towards those goals.
Even if I agree with you on the goals (I can claim he used meta-rationality here, in the sense that someone should try to make humans interplanetary species, even if he thought his chance of success was less than 50%) a lot the thinking that made him arrive at SpaceX seemed to be “one can actually do this way cheaper than the currently accepted standards, based on cost of materials etc”
I don’t think Jonah or I argues that you should never make calculations. Musks did make many decisions on that path and from the outside it’s hard to get an overview of what drives which decision.