Probably the most relevant post:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/we_cant_foresee.html
Another game proposed to shed light on this:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/the_coin_guessi.html
Probably the most relevant post:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/we_cant_foresee.html
Another game proposed to shed light on this:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/the_coin_guessi.html