(4 to 1): Conditional on a CFAR study getting past peer review, it will not show significantly positive effects on any objective, pre-specified outcome measure.
I don’t know CFAR’s current plans well enough to judge whether they will synthesize the relevant evidence. I am only betting that if they do, the result will be positive. I am still on the fence of taking a 4-1 bet on this, but the vast majority of my uncertainty here comes from what CFAR is planning to do, not what the result would be. I would probably take a 5-1 bet on the statement as you proposed it.
Sorry for misreading your original remark. Happy to offer the bet in conditional, i.e.:
Conditional on CFAR producing results of sufficient quality for academic publication (as judged by someone like Christiano or Karnofsky) these will fail to demonstrate benefit on a pre-specified objective outcome measure
Ah, the 4-1 to one bet was a conditional one:
I don’t know CFAR’s current plans well enough to judge whether they will synthesize the relevant evidence. I am only betting that if they do, the result will be positive. I am still on the fence of taking a 4-1 bet on this, but the vast majority of my uncertainty here comes from what CFAR is planning to do, not what the result would be. I would probably take a 5-1 bet on the statement as you proposed it.
Sorry for misreading your original remark. Happy to offer the bet in conditional, i.e.:
Conditional on CFAR producing results of sufficient quality for academic publication (as judged by someone like Christiano or Karnofsky) these will fail to demonstrate benefit on a pre-specified objective outcome measure