I have anecdotally heard of about 8 dances with roughly half not requiring masking and half requiring it, where it seemed like it would be possible to detect covid infections (scrupulous people attend, and test before and after, and either many get sick or none get sick).
My currently cached prior (a posterior over this data that predicts/summarizes all the events) is that if everyone is masking then no one gets sick, and if masking is optional there WILL be a wave of people reporting that they caught covid at the event. Vaccination requirements don’t appear to be correlated at all.
I have anecdotally heard of about 8 dances with roughly half not requiring masking and half requiring it, where it seemed like it would be possible to detect covid infections (scrupulous people attend, and test before and after, and either many get sick or none get sick).
My currently cached prior (a posterior over this data that predicts/summarizes all the events) is that if everyone is masking then no one gets sick, and if masking is optional there WILL be a wave of people reporting that they caught covid at the event. Vaccination requirements don’t appear to be correlated at all.