I find the concept regression toward the mean very useful because it is very intuitive, understandable and not related to health. Especially this example of Kahneman about an instructor of the Israeli Air Force is totally relatable, funny and understandable.
The fact that this concept (and the example) is not related to health has the advantages that one doesn’t need to have any kind of health-related knowledge to understand it and that it may not trigger usual arguments. The disadvantage is that they may argue that it does not apply to health. But there is a workaround: start by pointing out that sometimes one does feel ill and this feeling goes naturally away—the body is a healing machine! They will have to agree on that. Then you can tell the story.
I tried something similar a couple of times online with total strangers… I’m really not sure of the outcome. But face to face it may work better, especially with family members.
I find the concept regression toward the mean very useful because it is very intuitive, understandable and not related to health. Especially this example of Kahneman about an instructor of the Israeli Air Force is totally relatable, funny and understandable.
The fact that this concept (and the example) is not related to health has the advantages that one doesn’t need to have any kind of health-related knowledge to understand it and that it may not trigger usual arguments. The disadvantage is that they may argue that it does not apply to health. But there is a workaround: start by pointing out that sometimes one does feel ill and this feeling goes naturally away—the body is a healing machine! They will have to agree on that. Then you can tell the story.
I tried something similar a couple of times online with total strangers… I’m really not sure of the outcome. But face to face it may work better, especially with family members.
Good luck!
Oh, I loved that example when I read it in his book!
Funnily enough, she does use this kind of argument herself when advocating against the Covid vaccines.
I think I tried using it once at some point and it went like this:
Oh, such a pity it did not work but funny that you tried it already :-)