While I generally agree with the concept, I’m going to push back a little here. I read the 1-2% chance as less being about “why aren’t companies doing it” and more about lack of information.
My initial reaction to seeing it was that it was a combination factors along the lines of:
“there’s a lot of fraud out there, and by default my prior for things like this being valid is very low”
“factoring in that a couple of lesswrongers seem to think it’s ok that only pushes my estimate up into the handful of percent range”
“but there’s also evidence against, in that we don’t see any commercial products based on this, which pushes my estimate down to 1-2%”
I think this is a pretty reasonable place to start from.
While I generally agree with the concept, I’m going to push back a little here. I read the 1-2% chance as less being about “why aren’t companies doing it” and more about lack of information.
My initial reaction to seeing it was that it was a combination factors along the lines of:
“there’s a lot of fraud out there, and by default my prior for things like this being valid is very low”
“factoring in that a couple of lesswrongers seem to think it’s ok that only pushes my estimate up into the handful of percent range”
“but there’s also evidence against, in that we don’t see any commercial products based on this, which pushes my estimate down to 1-2%”
I think this is a pretty reasonable place to start from.