Mostly vague “accidents and harmful unknown unknowns aren’t that unlikely here”—because we have data on baseline success at “not have harmful side effects,” and it is low. We also know that lots of important side effects are unusual, so the expected loss can be high even after a number of “successes,” and this is doubly true because no-one is actually tracking side effects. We don’t know much about efficacy either, but again, on base rates it is somewhat low. (Base rates for mRNA are less clear, and may be far higher—but these sequences are unfiltered, so I’m not sure even those bse rates would apply.)
Finally, getting the adjuvants to work is typically tricky for vaccines, and I’d be very concerned about making them useless, or inducing reactions to something other than the virus. But if you want to know about intentional misuse, it’s relatively low. I would wonder about peanut protein to induce you to develop a new allergy because you primed your immune system to react to a new substance, but you’d need someone more expert than I.
Overall, I’d be really happy taking bets that in 20 years, looking back with (hopefully) much greater understanding of mRNA vaccines, a majority of immunologists would respond to hearing details about this idea with a solid “that’s idiotic, what the hell were those idiots thinking?” (If anyone wants to arrange details of this bet, let me know—it sounds like a great way to diversify and boost my expected retirement returns.)
Mostly vague “accidents and harmful unknown unknowns aren’t that unlikely here”—because we have data on baseline success at “not have harmful side effects,” and it is low. We also know that lots of important side effects are unusual, so the expected loss can be high even after a number of “successes,” and this is doubly true because no-one is actually tracking side effects. We don’t know much about efficacy either, but again, on base rates it is somewhat low. (Base rates for mRNA are less clear, and may be far higher—but these sequences are unfiltered, so I’m not sure even those bse rates would apply.)
Finally, getting the adjuvants to work is typically tricky for vaccines, and I’d be very concerned about making them useless, or inducing reactions to something other than the virus. But if you want to know about intentional misuse, it’s relatively low. I would wonder about peanut protein to induce you to develop a new allergy because you primed your immune system to react to a new substance, but you’d need someone more expert than I.
Overall, I’d be really happy taking bets that in 20 years, looking back with (hopefully) much greater understanding of mRNA vaccines, a majority of immunologists would respond to hearing details about this idea with a solid “that’s idiotic, what the hell were those idiots thinking?” (If anyone wants to arrange details of this bet, let me know—it sounds like a great way to diversify and boost my expected retirement returns.)