A friend offered that page 7 of white paper could maybe be used to deduce that Radvac would prevent Covid with ~40%.
This would mean the decision boundaries would get to
p(Covid)*40% > 0.01 ⇔
p(Covid) > 0.01/0.40 ⇔
p(Covid) > 0.025
so then you would need your chance to get Covid to be over 2.5% for the use to be net beneficial.
If we also presume a 80+ year old person who has 25% probability of death given Covid, then it becomes
so for them the chance to get Covid before official vaccination would need to be over 0.001 for it to be net beneficial with these boundary conditions.
A friend offered that page 7 of white paper could maybe be used to deduce that Radvac would prevent Covid with ~40%.
This would mean the decision boundaries would get to p(Covid)*40% > 0.01 ⇔ p(Covid) > 0.01/0.40 ⇔ p(Covid) > 0.025 so then you would need your chance to get Covid to be over 2.5% for the use to be net beneficial.
If we also presume a 80+ year old person who has 25% probability of death given Covid, then it becomes
p(RV works)*p(get Covid)*p(Covid harm) > p(RV harm) ⇔ p(Covid)*40%25% > 1/10000 ⇔ p(Covid) > 0.0001/(0.40.25) = 0.001
so for them the chance to get Covid before official vaccination would need to be over 0.001 for it to be net beneficial with these boundary conditions.