I agree with the point of your comment, that vaccines brought to clinical trials is a suboptimal reference class. However, I think that this is a locally invalid argument:
Would you conclude that, because some lines of code can navigate a rocket to the moon, that your code is pretty likely to navigate a rocket to Mars?
A computational model plus grounding in theory, if done right, should increase our confidence in the the efficacy of a sequence of peptides taken from the virus above the efficacy we’d assume for a random sequence of peptides.
How much? Can’t say.
As others have pointed out here, we on the other hand are comparing a new and perhaps much more effective means of designing a vaccine to the methods that were used from 2000-2015, which may be less effective. Hence, perhaps the reference class is suboptimal in the opposite direction as well.
I have no way to know how to weigh these competing factors. So I think the best thing to do is to start with the basic formula I concocted above, then modify it based on our intuitions about these other factors.
Alternatively, you could very justifiably stick with the rule “I don’t take untested medications.” Although as someone else pointed out, if you have that rule then perhaps you should also make sure to not use any drugs? I don’t have the answer, but wanted to try and provide some clarity for people who are considering breaking the “take no untested medications” rule.
I agree with the point of your comment, that vaccines brought to clinical trials is a suboptimal reference class. However, I think that this is a locally invalid argument:
A computational model plus grounding in theory, if done right, should increase our confidence in the the efficacy of a sequence of peptides taken from the virus above the efficacy we’d assume for a random sequence of peptides.
How much? Can’t say.
As others have pointed out here, we on the other hand are comparing a new and perhaps much more effective means of designing a vaccine to the methods that were used from 2000-2015, which may be less effective. Hence, perhaps the reference class is suboptimal in the opposite direction as well.
I have no way to know how to weigh these competing factors. So I think the best thing to do is to start with the basic formula I concocted above, then modify it based on our intuitions about these other factors.
Alternatively, you could very justifiably stick with the rule “I don’t take untested medications.” Although as someone else pointed out, if you have that rule then perhaps you should also make sure to not use any drugs? I don’t have the answer, but wanted to try and provide some clarity for people who are considering breaking the “take no untested medications” rule.