Ah excellent, thank you for getting ahold of someone. This matches the qualitative impression I had from the white paper.
It’s not clear from that comment what the denominator is—i.e. 4 out of how many who tested for it? The white paper says that about 100 researchers had taken the vaccine (most of them presumably not as early as May/June), and the comment says “only a handful” were collecting samples rigorously as of May/June, so I’d guess ~10 or less. That gives ~40% chance or higher of antibody response with that version of the vaccine (where “or higher” includes a significant chance that only 4 people ran the ELISA assays, in which case Laplace’ rule would give 80% chance of antibodies). Though note that the current version focuses on a different immunity strategy so it may not generalize, and the error bars were pretty wide to begin with.
One thing to note: if there’s an antibody response in a significant fraction of people but not everyone, that’s exactly the world where I’d expect “more dakka” to work.
Ah excellent, thank you for getting ahold of someone. This matches the qualitative impression I had from the white paper.
It’s not clear from that comment what the denominator is—i.e. 4 out of how many who tested for it? The white paper says that about 100 researchers had taken the vaccine (most of them presumably not as early as May/June), and the comment says “only a handful” were collecting samples rigorously as of May/June, so I’d guess ~10 or less. That gives ~40% chance or higher of antibody response with that version of the vaccine (where “or higher” includes a significant chance that only 4 people ran the ELISA assays, in which case Laplace’ rule would give 80% chance of antibodies). Though note that the current version focuses on a different immunity strategy so it may not generalize, and the error bars were pretty wide to begin with.
One thing to note: if there’s an antibody response in a significant fraction of people but not everyone, that’s exactly the world where I’d expect “more dakka” to work.