I know you’ve seen the Pascal’s Mugging problem—that’s what I meant to refer to. An upper bound to utility elsewhere doesn’t matter if P(Catholicism) gets a sufficient leverage penalty (and the same again for all stronger claims). Are you saying that according to Omega, Hansonian leverage penalties are unsalvageable and this upper bound is the solution? (On its face, the claim “Catholicism is true” does not logically rule out the Mugger’s claim, but of course we could go further.) I’d be more skeptical about this than I would be if Omega told me P=NP and also self-modifying AI is impossible by Godel’s Incompleteness. But of course if I accepted it, this would change the equation.
I know you’ve seen the Pascal’s Mugging problem—that’s what I meant to refer to. An upper bound to utility elsewhere doesn’t matter if P(Catholicism) gets a sufficient leverage penalty (and the same again for all stronger claims). Are you saying that according to Omega, Hansonian leverage penalties are unsalvageable and this upper bound is the solution? (On its face, the claim “Catholicism is true” does not logically rule out the Mugger’s claim, but of course we could go further.) I’d be more skeptical about this than I would be if Omega told me P=NP and also self-modifying AI is impossible by Godel’s Incompleteness. But of course if I accepted it, this would change the equation.