I’ve changed the rules to get rid of the normalization of probabilities clause, because it was pointed out to me that if someone says 0 to everything in an attempt to do well in Round 1, their Round 2 submission will receive a weight of 0 for Round 1 scoring anyway. It’s still possible that there are some incentives issues here, but I doubt there’s anything major, and I don’t want to mess too much with what people submit.
I’ve changed the rules to get rid of the normalization of probabilities clause, because it was pointed out to me that if someone says 0 to everything in an attempt to do well in Round 1, their Round 2 submission will receive a weight of 0 for Round 1 scoring anyway. It’s still possible that there are some incentives issues here, but I doubt there’s anything major, and I don’t want to mess too much with what people submit.