And then any normal person will go ‘wait, that does not make any sense, I know lots of people who got Covid, often multiple times, that we even know about, and all but one of them are fine’ and then they start quite rightfully ignoring you.
If Covid were to have a 10% chance of causing debilitating brain damage, and every observer observes 12 people who had Covid, then each Covid case observed would have a 90% chance of yielding no hit; for each observer who observes 12 cases in this hypothetical scenario, around 28% of observers will hit that 90% chance 12 times in a row, 0.9^12= 0.2824
In that scenario, around 28% of people who encountered “lots of people who got Covid” would go on to assert that a 10% rate of brain damage is bull, based on what they’ve seen with their own eyes, and many of them would be pretty vocal about it e.g. on social media.
This feels kind of strawman-ish. A whole lot of people I know have gotten Covid; I was able to find references in my messages to 27 people with definite positive tests + symptoms (which is certainly an undercount of people in my circles who have got it, probably by a factor of 2 or more). I’d assume most people in the US know at least this many people who’ve gotten Covid, since my friend group was quite careful early on.
Of those 27 people, not a single one shows signs of debilitating brain damage, and as far as I know only two (both of whom had significant risk factors) had symptoms continuing beyond a month. 0.9^27=0.058, or a ~6% chance of observing this if the 10% figure were true.
If Covid were to have a 10% chance of causing debilitating brain damage, and every observer observes 12 people who had Covid, then each Covid case observed would have a 90% chance of yielding no hit; for each observer who observes 12 cases in this hypothetical scenario, around 28% of observers will hit that 90% chance 12 times in a row, 0.9^12= 0.2824
In that scenario, around 28% of people who encountered “lots of people who got Covid” would go on to assert that a 10% rate of brain damage is bull, based on what they’ve seen with their own eyes, and many of them would be pretty vocal about it e.g. on social media.
This feels kind of strawman-ish. A whole lot of people I know have gotten Covid; I was able to find references in my messages to 27 people with definite positive tests + symptoms (which is certainly an undercount of people in my circles who have got it, probably by a factor of 2 or more). I’d assume most people in the US know at least this many people who’ve gotten Covid, since my friend group was quite careful early on.
Of those 27 people, not a single one shows signs of debilitating brain damage, and as far as I know only two (both of whom had significant risk factors) had symptoms continuing beyond a month. 0.9^27=0.058, or a ~6% chance of observing this if the 10% figure were true.