In general, I think the question of how best to improve the long-run future is highly uncertain, but has high value of information, so the most important activities are: (i) more prioritisation research (ii) building flexible capacity which can act on whatever turns out to be best in the future.
MIRI, FHI, GW, 80k, CEA, CFAR, GCRI all aim to further these causes, and are mutually supporting, so are particularly hard to disentangle. My guess is that if you buy the basic picture, the key issues will be things like ‘which organisation has the most pressing room for more funding at the moment?’ rather than questions about the value of the particular strategies.
Another option would be to fund research into which org can best use donations. There’s a chance this could be commissioned through CEA, though we’ll need to think of some ways to reduce bias!
Disclaimer: I’m the Executive Director of 80,000 Hours, which is part of CEA.
We’ve collated a list of all the approaches that seem to be on the table in the effective altruism community for improving the long-run future. There’s some other options, including funding GiveWell and GCRI. This doc also explains a little more of the reasoning behind the approaches. If you like more detail on how 80k might help reduce the risk of extinction, drop me an email at ben@80000hours.org.
In general, I think the question of how best to improve the long-run future is highly uncertain, but has high value of information, so the most important activities are: (i) more prioritisation research (ii) building flexible capacity which can act on whatever turns out to be best in the future.
MIRI, FHI, GW, 80k, CEA, CFAR, GCRI all aim to further these causes, and are mutually supporting, so are particularly hard to disentangle. My guess is that if you buy the basic picture, the key issues will be things like ‘which organisation has the most pressing room for more funding at the moment?’ rather than questions about the value of the particular strategies.
Another option would be to fund research into which org can best use donations. There’s a chance this could be commissioned through CEA, though we’ll need to think of some ways to reduce bias!
Disclaimer: I’m the Executive Director of 80,000 Hours, which is part of CEA.