So you are saying that you have no cares whatsoever about whether or not other peoples preferences are fulfilled. Just about their happiness? Is this just because you cannot observe others preferences?
I think that if you believe that, then I agree with you. There is no value of this thought experiment to you. This is one of the things I tried to say at the beginning about preferences over things you cannot observe. I probably should have said specifically how this relates to altruism.
I think you’re confusing preferences about the world and preferences about an un-observable cause. As an altruist, Alice cares about Bob’s preferences whether to have a dollar or not. Bob has no way of having knowledge of (or a preference over) Alice’s prediction, and she knows it, so she’d be an idiot to project that onto her choice. If she thinks Bob may be right, then she updated her probability estimate, in contradiction of the story.
options 2 and 3 are twice as likely to lose than option 1. This is what it means for Alice to have the belief that there is a 2⁄3 chance of heads.
So you are saying that you have no cares whatsoever about whether or not other peoples preferences are fulfilled. Just about their happiness? Is this just because you cannot observe others preferences?
I think that if you believe that, then I agree with you. There is no value of this thought experiment to you. This is one of the things I tried to say at the beginning about preferences over things you cannot observe. I probably should have said specifically how this relates to altruism.
I think you’re confusing preferences about the world and preferences about an un-observable cause. As an altruist, Alice cares about Bob’s preferences whether to have a dollar or not. Bob has no way of having knowledge of (or a preference over) Alice’s prediction, and she knows it, so she’d be an idiot to project that onto her choice. If she thinks Bob may be right, then she updated her probability estimate, in contradiction of the story.
options 2 and 3 are twice as likely to lose than option 1. This is what it means for Alice to have the belief that there is a 2⁄3 chance of heads.