“Everyone is going to switch to cloud stuff” means that, in the short term, there will be a shortage of cloud people and an excess of non-cloud people.
Your argument is for hiring in a long-term future where the non-cloud people retired or forgot how to do their thing, but we know that’s not what US executives were thinking because they don’t think that long-term due to the incentives they face.
And it certainly doesn’t explain some groups of companies switching to cloud stuff together and then switching back together later.
we know that’s not what US executives were thinking because they don’t think that long-term due to the incentives they face
The story of “they’re doing something that’s bad in the short term, but good in the long term, but only accidentally they’re actually trying to do something good in the short term but failing” seems suspicious.
I know that the CEOs I know do plan in the long term.
I also know that the many of the worlds most famous consumer brands (Apple, Amazon. Tesla) have valuations that only make sense because people trust the CEOs to prioritize the long term and those future earnings are priced in.
And I also know that if you look at the spending budget of many of the top consumer tech companies, and the amount spent on longterm R&D and moon shots, it sure looks like they are spending on the long term.
“Everyone is going to switch to cloud stuff” means that, in the short term, there will be a shortage of cloud people and an excess of non-cloud people.
Your argument is for hiring in a long-term future where the non-cloud people retired or forgot how to do their thing, but we know that’s not what US executives were thinking because they don’t think that long-term due to the incentives they face.
And it certainly doesn’t explain some groups of companies switching to cloud stuff together and then switching back together later.
The story of “they’re doing something that’s bad in the short term, but good in the long term, but only accidentally they’re actually trying to do something good in the short term but failing” seems suspicious.
I know that the CEOs I know do plan in the long term.
I also know that the many of the worlds most famous consumer brands (Apple, Amazon. Tesla) have valuations that only make sense because people trust the CEOs to prioritize the long term and those future earnings are priced in.
And I also know that if you look at the spending budget of many of the top consumer tech companies, and the amount spent on longterm R&D and moon shots, it sure looks like they are spending on the long term.
We’re talking about different timescales. Apple’s investments paid off within the tenure of top executives. Meanwhile, banks are still using COBOL.
I’m not talking about 10 year time horizons no