It’s a peculiar article, because it gives two concepts as a definition for rationality, Epistemic Rationality and Instrumental Rationality, where clearly the concepts are not identical. And yet all sorts of statements are made thereafter about Rationality without noting the difference between the two concepts.
To answer you question in these terms, for all beliefs where the Instrumentally Rational belief is X, and the Epistemically Rational belief is NOT X, I’d rather believe in X. I’d rather Win than Correctly Predict, where I have to make the tradeoff.
I put winning above predictive accuracy, yes.
As fate would have it, the article What do We Mean by Rationality is the page that comes up in my chrome browser when I type “less” http://lesswrong.com/lw/31/what_do_we_mean_by_rationality/
It’s a peculiar article, because it gives two concepts as a definition for rationality, Epistemic Rationality and Instrumental Rationality, where clearly the concepts are not identical. And yet all sorts of statements are made thereafter about Rationality without noting the difference between the two concepts.
To answer you question in these terms, for all beliefs where the Instrumentally Rational belief is X, and the Epistemically Rational belief is NOT X, I’d rather believe in X. I’d rather Win than Correctly Predict, where I have to make the tradeoff.