None of the above are Pacal’s Mugging, as stated. While some people have taken to using Pascal’s Mugging as a generic term for anything that’s very-low-probability and very-high-impact, I think that’s missing the point of the original thought experiment. Pascal’s Mugging is a scenario in which the size of the impact and the smallness of the probability are entangled together. It shows that, if your utility function and epistemology are broken in a particular technical way, then no degree of improbability, no matter how astronomical, will suffice to let you ignore something.
None of the above are Pacal’s Mugging, as stated. While some people have taken to using Pascal’s Mugging as a generic term for anything that’s very-low-probability and very-high-impact, I think that’s missing the point of the original thought experiment. Pascal’s Mugging is a scenario in which the size of the impact and the smallness of the probability are entangled together. It shows that, if your utility function and epistemology are broken in a particular technical way, then no degree of improbability, no matter how astronomical, will suffice to let you ignore something.