Well, there’s small and then there’s small. Sadly, human brains are bad at handling this sort of distinction. One in 10,000 is only 13 or 14 coin flips in a row (note that ‘number of coin flips’ is a log scale, which is useful to help humans conceptualize big or small numbers). 14 coin flips is more like 1 coin flip than it’s like a thousand coin flips.
Well, there’s small and then there’s small. Sadly, human brains are bad at handling this sort of distinction. One in 10,000 is only 13 or 14 coin flips in a row (note that ‘number of coin flips’ is a log scale, which is useful to help humans conceptualize big or small numbers). 14 coin flips is more like 1 coin flip than it’s like a thousand coin flips.