Current tech/growth overhangs caused by regulation are not enough to make countries with better regulations outcompete the ones with worse ones. It’s not obvious to me that this won’t change before AGI. If better governed countries (say, Singapore) can become more geopolitically powerful than larger, worse governed countries (say, Russia) by having better tech regulations, that puts pressure on countries worldwide to loose those bottlenecks.
Plausibly this doesn’t matter because the US + China are such heavyweights that they aren’t at risk of being outcompeted by anyone even if Singapore could outcompete Russia and as long as it doesn’t change the rules for US or Chinese governance world GDP won’t change by much.
Current tech/growth overhangs caused by regulation are not enough to make countries with better regulations outcompete the ones with worse ones. It’s not obvious to me that this won’t change before AGI. If better governed countries (say, Singapore) can become more geopolitically powerful than larger, worse governed countries (say, Russia) by having better tech regulations, that puts pressure on countries worldwide to loose those bottlenecks.
Plausibly this doesn’t matter because the US + China are such heavyweights that they aren’t at risk of being outcompeted by anyone even if Singapore could outcompete Russia and as long as it doesn’t change the rules for US or Chinese governance world GDP won’t change by much.