Them knowing anthropics better than you only makes a difference insofar as they utilitise a different algorithm/make decisions in a way that is disconnected from you. For example, if we are discussing anthropics problem X which you can both solve and they can solve Y and Z which you can’t, that is irrelevant here as we are only asking about X. Anyway, I don’t think you can assume that people will be evenly distributed. We might hypothesis, for example, that the level of anthropics knowledge will go up over time.
“However, before making any anthropic bet, I need to take into account logical uncertainty”—that seems like a reasonable thing to do. However, at this particular time, I’m only trying to solve anthropics from the inside view, not from the outside view. The later is valuable, but I prefer to focus on one part of a problem at a time.
Them knowing anthropics better than you only makes a difference insofar as they utilitise a different algorithm/make decisions in a way that is disconnected from you. For example, if we are discussing anthropics problem X which you can both solve and they can solve Y and Z which you can’t, that is irrelevant here as we are only asking about X. Anyway, I don’t think you can assume that people will be evenly distributed. We might hypothesis, for example, that the level of anthropics knowledge will go up over time.
“However, before making any anthropic bet, I need to take into account logical uncertainty”—that seems like a reasonable thing to do. However, at this particular time, I’m only trying to solve anthropics from the inside view, not from the outside view. The later is valuable, but I prefer to focus on one part of a problem at a time.