If you think the probability derived from the upper limit set by evolutionary brute force should be spread out uniformly over the next 20 orders of magnitude, then I assume you think that if we bought 4 orders of magnitude today, there is a 20% chance that a method derived from evolutionary brute force will give us AGI? Whereas I would put that probability much lower, since brute force evolution is not nearly powerful enough at those scales.
I don’t know what “derived from evolutionary brute force” means (I don’t think anyone has said those words anywhere in this thread other than you?)
But in terms of P(AGI), I think that “20% for next 4 orders of magnitude” is a fine prima facie estimate if you bring in this single consideration and nothing else. Of course I don’t think anyone would ever do that, but frankly I still think “20% for the next 4 orders of magnitude” is still better than most communities’ estimates.
I don’t know what “derived from evolutionary brute force” means (I don’t think anyone has said those words anywhere in this thread other than you?)
But in terms of P(AGI), I think that “20% for next 4 orders of magnitude” is a fine prima facie estimate if you bring in this single consideration and nothing else. Of course I don’t think anyone would ever do that, but frankly I still think “20% for the next 4 orders of magnitude” is still better than most communities’ estimates.