I can’t speak for all those interested—but I think one common theme is that we see much persistent disagreement in the world when agents share their estimates—Aumann says it is unlikely to be epistemically rational and honest (although it often purports to be) - so what is going on?
Your proposed coin-flip is certainly faster than Aumann agreement—but does not offer such good quality results. In an Aumann agreement, agents take account of each others’ confidence levels.
I can’t speak for all those interested—but I think one common theme is that we see much persistent disagreement in the world when agents share their estimates—Aumann says it is unlikely to be epistemically rational and honest (although it often purports to be) - so what is going on?
Your proposed coin-flip is certainly faster than Aumann agreement—but does not offer such good quality results. In an Aumann agreement, agents take account of each others’ confidence levels.