And, how much probability can be shifted in such a short time (given sufficiently complex topic) — would that amount be tiny?
The amount of probability that can be shifted can be large. What must be tiny is the complexity of the change in probability. It is easy to provoke a large update with a simple contradiction from a trusted expert but what you cannot do is gain a significant amount of information about exactly which of the detailed premises you most needed to update on.
The amount of probability that can be shifted can be large. What must be tiny is the complexity of the change in probability. It is easy to provoke a large update with a simple contradiction from a trusted expert but what you cannot do is gain a significant amount of information about exactly which of the detailed premises you most needed to update on.