The thread that starts this discussion speaks about the importance of modelling internals for predictions.
In drug research the company usually search for a molecule that binds some protein that does something in a specific pathway.
Even your clinical trials demonstrate that the drug works and helps with the illness you want to treat, you haven’t demonstrated that it works via the pathway you target. It might work because of off-target interactions.
This is an example of the sort I described: the model is wrong, but by chance made a right prediction. An incorrect model of internal mechanisms is still a model of internal mechanisms. The possibility of getting lucky is a poor thing on which to base a claim that modelling internal mechanisms is unnecessary.
The possibility of getting lucky is a poor thing on which to base a claim that modelling internal mechanisms is unnecessary.
Gives failure rates of >90 any getting a drug through clinical trials is always “getting lucky”.
The issue depends on how much successful drugs are successful do to understanding of the pathways and how many are successful because of luck and good empirical measurement of effects of drugs.
I personally think that medicine would be improved if we would reroute capital currently trying to understand pathways to researching better ways of empirical measurement.
The thread that starts this discussion speaks about the importance of modelling internals for predictions.
In drug research the company usually search for a molecule that binds some protein that does something in a specific pathway. Even your clinical trials demonstrate that the drug works and helps with the illness you want to treat, you haven’t demonstrated that it works via the pathway you target. It might work because of off-target interactions.
This is an example of the sort I described: the model is wrong, but by chance made a right prediction. An incorrect model of internal mechanisms is still a model of internal mechanisms. The possibility of getting lucky is a poor thing on which to base a claim that modelling internal mechanisms is unnecessary.
Gives failure rates of >90 any getting a drug through clinical trials is always “getting lucky”.
The issue depends on how much successful drugs are successful do to understanding of the pathways and how many are successful because of luck and good empirical measurement of effects of drugs.
I personally think that medicine would be improved if we would reroute capital currently trying to understand pathways to researching better ways of empirical measurement.