Point taken about evidence of predictive value v. random chance. Just to clarify, the intellectual exercise was more in the lines of, rather than taking an astrology book and seeing if what it says is predictive v. chance, let’s rephrase the question:
The question not as “is Astrology real or correct”, it becomes “could time of birth affect development, apart from seasonal effects?”. (why day or hour of birth, from year to year, might matter).
Then the exercise leads to “could planetary alignment (gravitational changes, electrical fields, etc.) have subtle and predictive effects on personality or development?”
And that is where I hit “who am I to say” seeing as that’s not my area of knowledge, and I have not come across any studies that might have analyzed that either way. Maybe it’s because some proto-analysis suggests that it’s not “worth” studying because there’s nothing to study (fields from high-tension power lines affecting development, possibly), but maybe the “worth” is more monetary: who’s going to bother funding it? a. it seems ridiculous, b. it would be really really hard = expensive, c. the effect might be there but too subtle for us to measure at this time.
Anyway, I’m in no way a proponent of astrology, just relaying a process that seemed a rational exploration at the time.
“The question not as “is Astrology real or correct”, it becomes “could time of birth affect development, apart from seasonal effects?”
I have wondered that too. Trouble is: signal-to-noise ratio. Maybe you were born in December and it was cold, so you have a slight tendency to think of the world as hostile (say).
But that will be drowned out by a zillion other far-more-important influences.
Same a fortiori with gravitational/electromagnetic fields. Start with gravity. I calculate on the back of the envelope the pull of Proxima Centauri (the nearest star that’s not the sun) as being on the order of 7 piconewton, or 7 trillionths of a newton. (A newton is enough force to lift a hamburger.) So what if you are pulled in the direction of P. Centauri by an amount as feeble as that? That’s about as much gravitational pull as an orange has on you 50 metres away. :) Not to mention all the other stars are acting in opposite directions. Result: nil.
Electrical force argument left as an exercise for the reader.
Apropos of nothing: Welcome to LessWrong! (Do I detect a Galileo reference in that handle? Classic!) Feel free to introduce yourself there! If you want some reading, What Do We Mean By Rationality? is a good kicking-off point; that said, we try to link back to related ideas in most of our posts, so you’ll find a lot of cool info just by following overcomingbias.com and lesswrong.com links in comments and posts. If you want to be systematic—or just look for random lists to pick attractive titles off of—you can try the sequences and the top-rated posts.
Yes, I like the role of Simplicio as the guy who asks the dumb questions.
Thanks for the links; I’ve already been gobbling this website down for a week or so, having been put on the scent by Massimo Pigliucci’s. Haven’t seen overcomingbias yet, mind.
Point taken about evidence of predictive value v. random chance. Just to clarify, the intellectual exercise was more in the lines of, rather than taking an astrology book and seeing if what it says is predictive v. chance, let’s rephrase the question: The question not as “is Astrology real or correct”, it becomes “could time of birth affect development, apart from seasonal effects?”. (why day or hour of birth, from year to year, might matter). Then the exercise leads to “could planetary alignment (gravitational changes, electrical fields, etc.) have subtle and predictive effects on personality or development?” And that is where I hit “who am I to say” seeing as that’s not my area of knowledge, and I have not come across any studies that might have analyzed that either way. Maybe it’s because some proto-analysis suggests that it’s not “worth” studying because there’s nothing to study (fields from high-tension power lines affecting development, possibly), but maybe the “worth” is more monetary: who’s going to bother funding it? a. it seems ridiculous, b. it would be really really hard = expensive, c. the effect might be there but too subtle for us to measure at this time. Anyway, I’m in no way a proponent of astrology, just relaying a process that seemed a rational exploration at the time.
“The question not as “is Astrology real or correct”, it becomes “could time of birth affect development, apart from seasonal effects?”
I have wondered that too. Trouble is: signal-to-noise ratio. Maybe you were born in December and it was cold, so you have a slight tendency to think of the world as hostile (say).
But that will be drowned out by a zillion other far-more-important influences.
Same a fortiori with gravitational/electromagnetic fields. Start with gravity. I calculate on the back of the envelope the pull of Proxima Centauri (the nearest star that’s not the sun) as being on the order of 7 piconewton, or 7 trillionths of a newton. (A newton is enough force to lift a hamburger.) So what if you are pulled in the direction of P. Centauri by an amount as feeble as that? That’s about as much gravitational pull as an orange has on you 50 metres away. :) Not to mention all the other stars are acting in opposite directions. Result: nil.
Electrical force argument left as an exercise for the reader.
Apropos of nothing: Welcome to LessWrong! (Do I detect a Galileo reference in that handle? Classic!) Feel free to introduce yourself there! If you want some reading, What Do We Mean By Rationality? is a good kicking-off point; that said, we try to link back to related ideas in most of our posts, so you’ll find a lot of cool info just by following overcomingbias.com and lesswrong.com links in comments and posts. If you want to be systematic—or just look for random lists to pick attractive titles off of—you can try the sequences and the top-rated posts.
What ho, thanks for the welcome!
Yes, I like the role of Simplicio as the guy who asks the dumb questions.
Thanks for the links; I’ve already been gobbling this website down for a week or so, having been put on the scent by Massimo Pigliucci’s. Haven’t seen overcomingbias yet, mind.
Again, many thanks for the bread-salt. :)