I’m kicking myself on #16 - I don’t know enough about epidemiology to make such a strong guess.
Yeah, I did a similar thing on #38 where I was similarly overconfident on an economy question which I don’t know nearly enough about.
On #16 itself I was lower than I should have been because I was using “virus” as a reference class rather than “respiratory virus” which was an obvious mistake looking back at it.
Yeah, I did a similar thing on #38 where I was similarly overconfident on an economy question which I don’t know nearly enough about.
On #16 itself I was lower than I should have been because I was using “virus” as a reference class rather than “respiratory virus” which was an obvious mistake looking back at it.