“Will ncov survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?” is a medical question that makes no implication about broader covid risk.
This seems wrong to me, in part because the hypothesis that there could be widespread negative effects even for survivors was a compelling reason for 1) me to take it seriously (at the time, I estimated my disability risk was something like 5x the importance of my mortality risk) and 2) people to expect spread to be bad in a way that shows up in many indicators (like GDP).
Fair enough. When I was thinking about “broad covid risk”, I was referring more to geographical breadth—something more along the lines of “is this gonna be a big uncontained pandemic” than “is coronavirus a bad thing to get.” I grant that the latter could have been a valid consideration (after all, it was with H1N1) and that claiming that it makes “no implication” about broader covid risk was a mis-statement on my part.
That being said, I wouldn’t really consider it an alarm bell (and when I read it, it wasn’t one for me). The top answer, Connor Flexman, states:
Tl;dr long-term fatigue and mortality from other pneumonias make this look very roughly 2x as bad to me as the mortality-alone estimates.
It’s less precise than looking at CoVs specifically, but we can look at long-term effects just from pneumonia.
For me personally:
A 2x increase in how bad Covid19 was in February was not cause for much alarm in general. I just wasn’t that worried worried about a pandemic
The answer is based long-term effects of pneumonia, not covid itself (which isn’t measurable). If I read something that said “hey you have a surprisingly high likelihood of getting pneumonia this year”, I would be alarmed. This wasn’t really that post
I was already kind of expecting that Covid could cause pneumonia based on typical coverage of the virus—I wasn’t surprised by the post in the way I’d expect to be if it was an alarm bell
I’ll give the post some points for pointing out a useful, valuable and often-neglected consideration but I dunno. At that time I saw “you are in danger of getting coronavirus” posts as different from “coronavirus can cause bad things to happen” posts. And the former would’ve been alarm bells and the latter wouldn’t’ve been.
This seems wrong to me, in part because the hypothesis that there could be widespread negative effects even for survivors was a compelling reason for 1) me to take it seriously (at the time, I estimated my disability risk was something like 5x the importance of my mortality risk) and 2) people to expect spread to be bad in a way that shows up in many indicators (like GDP).
Fair enough. When I was thinking about “broad covid risk”, I was referring more to geographical breadth—something more along the lines of “is this gonna be a big uncontained pandemic” than “is coronavirus a bad thing to get.” I grant that the latter could have been a valid consideration (after all, it was with H1N1) and that claiming that it makes “no implication” about broader covid risk was a mis-statement on my part.
That being said, I wouldn’t really consider it an alarm bell (and when I read it, it wasn’t one for me). The top answer, Connor Flexman, states:
For me personally:
A 2x increase in how bad Covid19 was in February was not cause for much alarm in general. I just wasn’t that worried worried about a pandemic
The answer is based long-term effects of pneumonia, not covid itself (which isn’t measurable). If I read something that said “hey you have a surprisingly high likelihood of getting pneumonia this year”, I would be alarmed. This wasn’t really that post
I was already kind of expecting that Covid could cause pneumonia based on typical coverage of the virus—I wasn’t surprised by the post in the way I’d expect to be if it was an alarm bell
I’ll give the post some points for pointing out a useful, valuable and often-neglected consideration but I dunno. At that time I saw “you are in danger of getting coronavirus” posts as different from “coronavirus can cause bad things to happen” posts. And the former would’ve been alarm bells and the latter wouldn’t’ve been.