I’m curious if there is any reason we should expect paying for ad-free media and software to ultimately go any better than cable TV did.
I don’t think “ultimately” has any place in this conversation. We’re nowhere near the ultimate, and won’t be for a long time. This is likely to be a cyclic equilibrium, where it swings between more reasonable and less. It happened for TV disaggregation—the power of TiVo to skip ads varied over time as ad-injection tech changed, then paying for ad-free, then paying more for ad-free, then some services that don’t have an ad-free tier. It’s happening on the web and in apps—many have an ad-free tier if you pay, and there are ad-blockers with varying degrees of effectiveness. And counter-technology to detect the ad-blockers, in an interesting but non-static arms race.
I think it won’t be long (under a decade) before wearable ad-blockers are available for the rich. And then ads will start incorporating detection-blockers, and the ad-blockers will start selling replacement ad space, and then something else will change.
People’s attention and beliefs are far too valuable to let them keep.
I don’t think “ultimately” has any place in this conversation. We’re nowhere near the ultimate, and won’t be for a long time. This is likely to be a cyclic equilibrium, where it swings between more reasonable and less. It happened for TV disaggregation—the power of TiVo to skip ads varied over time as ad-injection tech changed, then paying for ad-free, then paying more for ad-free, then some services that don’t have an ad-free tier. It’s happening on the web and in apps—many have an ad-free tier if you pay, and there are ad-blockers with varying degrees of effectiveness. And counter-technology to detect the ad-blockers, in an interesting but non-static arms race.
I think it won’t be long (under a decade) before wearable ad-blockers are available for the rich. And then ads will start incorporating detection-blockers, and the ad-blockers will start selling replacement ad space, and then something else will change.
People’s attention and beliefs are far too valuable to let them keep.