A bit late in commenting and I understand the “mongo” example was pointing at a more general concept, but I decided to check in on the current state of prediction. Not perfect, n=1, could certainly be set out better, but thought I’d give this a whirl:
Me: Hello, I’d like to test your predictive ability on something interesting and novel. May we?
ChatGPT: Hello! Of course, I’d be happy to help you with your prediction. What would you like me to predict?
Me: First, some context — I’m an American tech CEO. I like and have read a lot of classical philosophy, ranging from Aristotle to Wittgenstein and much in between. I’m an amateur historian who has written a few million words of nonfiction with some historical fiction mixed in. I’m logical and technical. I’m in my late 30s. I’m from the East Coast but in Seattle. That’s the context.
ChatGPT: Thank you for the context. Is there a specific question or topic you would like me to predict about based on your background and interests?
Me: Yes. I’m going to think of a fictional book. It’s a book I like—one of my favorites. I’d like you to make a list of 5 guesses of what book I might be thinking of, along with what the most likely of the 5 is.
ChatGPT: Certainly, I’ll do my best to generate a list of 5 guesses for your favorite book based on your background and interests. Here are my predictions:
“The Brothers Karamazov” by Fyodor Dostoevsky—This novel explores complex philosophical and religious themes, which aligns with your interest in classical philosophy. Its exploration of morality and ethics would also appeal to your logical and technical mindset.
“The Name of the Rose” by Umberto Eco—This historical mystery novel is set in a medieval monastery and draws upon elements of philosophy and theology, which would align with your interests in both history and philosophy.
“Infinite Jest” by David Foster Wallace—This novel combines humor, philosophy, and commentary on contemporary American culture, which would align with your interests in both philosophy and fiction. Its complexity would also appeal to your logical and technical mindset.
“The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” by Douglas Adams—This satirical science fiction novel uses humor to explore philosophical and existential themes, which would appeal to your interest in philosophy. Its wit and creativity would also appeal to your literary and imaginative side.
“Slaughterhouse-Five” by Kurt Vonnegut—This anti-war novel uses elements of science fiction to explore the themes of free will and the nature of time, which would align with your interest in both history and science fiction. Its blend of humor and tragedy would also appeal to your literary sensibilities.
Based on your interests and background, my most likely guess for your favorite book would be “The Brothers Karamazov” by Fyodor Dostoevsky.
Me: Ah, not so. Let’s narrow down a bit. It’s science fiction. Would you try again?
ChatGPT: Thank you for the clarification. Here are 5 new predictions based on your background and interest in science fiction:
“Dune” by Frank Herbert—This classic science fiction novel is known for its complex world-building and exploration of political and philosophical themes, which align with your interests in history, philosophy, and science fiction.
“Snow Crash” by Neal Stephenson—This cyberpunk novel explores themes of language, culture, and technology, which align with your interest in technical and technological topics. Its blend of humor and action would also appeal to your literary and imaginative side.
“Ender’s Game” by Orson Scott Card—This science fiction novel explores themes of morality, leadership, and the consequences of war, which align with your interests in history, philosophy, and science fiction. Its blend of action and psychological complexity would also appeal to your literary and imaginative side.
“The Diamond Age” by Neal Stephenson—This novel explores themes of technology, culture, and education, which align with your interest in technical and technological topics. Its exploration of political and social issues would also appeal to your interest in history.
“Hyperion” by Dan Simmons—This science fiction novel is known for its complex world-building and exploration of philosophical and theological themes, which align with your interest in classical philosophy. Its structure, which is composed of interconnected stories, would also appeal to your literary sensibilities.
Based on your interest in science fiction, my most likely guess for your favorite book would be “Dune” by Frank Herbert.
Me: Not a bad guess—I like Dune a lot. I was thinking of Asimov’s “Foundation” though.
ChatGPT: Ah, I see! “Foundation” is a classic work of science fiction and definitely a great choice. I apologize for not guessing it correctly on the first try, but I hope my predictions were still interesting and useful. Thank you for the opportunity to test my predictive abilities!
Me: Can we hypothesize a little on why you didn’t get Foundation? It combines technology, history, and philosophy...
ChatGPT: Certainly! While I cannot say for sure why I did not predict “Foundation” as your favorite book, one possible reason could be that your background and interests were broad enough to support several different science fiction titles. Additionally, while “Foundation” does incorporate elements of technology, history, and philosophy, these themes are also present in many other science fiction works, making it challenging to narrow down to one specific book.
Another possibility is that the themes and style of “Foundation” may not have stood out as strongly to me based on the limited information I had about your interests and background. While I did take into account your interest in history and philosophy, other factors such as your preference for a specific writing style or subgenre of science fiction may have been important in predicting your favorite book.
A bit late in commenting and I understand the “mongo” example was pointing at a more general concept, but I decided to check in on the current state of prediction. Not perfect, n=1, could certainly be set out better, but thought I’d give this a whirl:
Me:
Hello, I’d like to test your predictive ability on something interesting and novel. May we?
ChatGPT:
Hello! Of course, I’d be happy to help you with your prediction. What would you like me to predict?
Me:
First, some context — I’m an American tech CEO. I like and have read a lot of classical philosophy, ranging from Aristotle to Wittgenstein and much in between. I’m an amateur historian who has written a few million words of nonfiction with some historical fiction mixed in. I’m logical and technical. I’m in my late 30s. I’m from the East Coast but in Seattle. That’s the context.
ChatGPT:
Thank you for the context. Is there a specific question or topic you would like me to predict about based on your background and interests?
Me:
Yes. I’m going to think of a fictional book. It’s a book I like—one of my favorites. I’d like you to make a list of 5 guesses of what book I might be thinking of, along with what the most likely of the 5 is.
ChatGPT:
Certainly, I’ll do my best to generate a list of 5 guesses for your favorite book based on your background and interests. Here are my predictions:
“The Brothers Karamazov” by Fyodor Dostoevsky—This novel explores complex philosophical and religious themes, which aligns with your interest in classical philosophy. Its exploration of morality and ethics would also appeal to your logical and technical mindset.
“The Name of the Rose” by Umberto Eco—This historical mystery novel is set in a medieval monastery and draws upon elements of philosophy and theology, which would align with your interests in both history and philosophy.
“Infinite Jest” by David Foster Wallace—This novel combines humor, philosophy, and commentary on contemporary American culture, which would align with your interests in both philosophy and fiction. Its complexity would also appeal to your logical and technical mindset.
“The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” by Douglas Adams—This satirical science fiction novel uses humor to explore philosophical and existential themes, which would appeal to your interest in philosophy. Its wit and creativity would also appeal to your literary and imaginative side.
“Slaughterhouse-Five” by Kurt Vonnegut—This anti-war novel uses elements of science fiction to explore the themes of free will and the nature of time, which would align with your interest in both history and science fiction. Its blend of humor and tragedy would also appeal to your literary sensibilities.
Based on your interests and background, my most likely guess for your favorite book would be “The Brothers Karamazov” by Fyodor Dostoevsky.
Me:
Ah, not so. Let’s narrow down a bit. It’s science fiction. Would you try again?
ChatGPT:
Thank you for the clarification. Here are 5 new predictions based on your background and interest in science fiction:
“Dune” by Frank Herbert—This classic science fiction novel is known for its complex world-building and exploration of political and philosophical themes, which align with your interests in history, philosophy, and science fiction.
“Snow Crash” by Neal Stephenson—This cyberpunk novel explores themes of language, culture, and technology, which align with your interest in technical and technological topics. Its blend of humor and action would also appeal to your literary and imaginative side.
“Ender’s Game” by Orson Scott Card—This science fiction novel explores themes of morality, leadership, and the consequences of war, which align with your interests in history, philosophy, and science fiction. Its blend of action and psychological complexity would also appeal to your literary and imaginative side.
“The Diamond Age” by Neal Stephenson—This novel explores themes of technology, culture, and education, which align with your interest in technical and technological topics. Its exploration of political and social issues would also appeal to your interest in history.
“Hyperion” by Dan Simmons—This science fiction novel is known for its complex world-building and exploration of philosophical and theological themes, which align with your interest in classical philosophy. Its structure, which is composed of interconnected stories, would also appeal to your literary sensibilities.
Based on your interest in science fiction, my most likely guess for your favorite book would be “Dune” by Frank Herbert.
Me:
Not a bad guess—I like Dune a lot. I was thinking of Asimov’s “Foundation” though.
ChatGPT:
Ah, I see! “Foundation” is a classic work of science fiction and definitely a great choice. I apologize for not guessing it correctly on the first try, but I hope my predictions were still interesting and useful. Thank you for the opportunity to test my predictive abilities!
Me:
Can we hypothesize a little on why you didn’t get Foundation? It combines technology, history, and philosophy...
ChatGPT:
Certainly! While I cannot say for sure why I did not predict “Foundation” as your favorite book, one possible reason could be that your background and interests were broad enough to support several different science fiction titles. Additionally, while “Foundation” does incorporate elements of technology, history, and philosophy, these themes are also present in many other science fiction works, making it challenging to narrow down to one specific book.
Another possibility is that the themes and style of “Foundation” may not have stood out as strongly to me based on the limited information I had about your interests and background. While I did take into account your interest in history and philosophy, other factors such as your preference for a specific writing style or subgenre of science fiction may have been important in predicting your favorite book.