It seems like you don’t have many data points to be able to say that with much confidence? Why not run it a bit longer and see what happens (maybe with some adjustments that people have suggested)? Also it doesn’t seem like a linear extrapolation makes sense here because having fewer entries would give people a stronger incentive to participate (since they’d each have a greater chance of winning) so the number of entries ought to stabilize in the positive region. Even in the worst case scenario, if no one submits a prize-worthy entry, can’t you cancel the prize at that point and not lose very much?
Also, I’m curious if this was mostly your and Zvi’s decision, or Paul’s, and how is Paul planning to use the money that is “saved” from cancelling this prize? (In case you’re wondering about my motivations here, I’ve been thinking over some related questions about how to spend my own money and/or other people’s that I might have influence over.)
I don’t think the money incentive is strong enough. Nobody will do good AI safety work just for a chance at 5K dollars. The prestige incentive is stronger, but if we get fewer entries over time, the prestige incentive falls and we get even fewer entries next time etc.
Canceling was my suggestion to which others agreed. Can’t speak for others, but my main reason was that it’s not fun to work on a project without growth, even if it’s for an important cause. The choice was between canceling it and tweaking it to achieve growth, and I didn’t have good ideas for tweaks.
It seems like you don’t have many data points to be able to say that with much confidence? Why not run it a bit longer and see what happens (maybe with some adjustments that people have suggested)? Also it doesn’t seem like a linear extrapolation makes sense here because having fewer entries would give people a stronger incentive to participate (since they’d each have a greater chance of winning) so the number of entries ought to stabilize in the positive region. Even in the worst case scenario, if no one submits a prize-worthy entry, can’t you cancel the prize at that point and not lose very much?
Also, I’m curious if this was mostly your and Zvi’s decision, or Paul’s, and how is Paul planning to use the money that is “saved” from cancelling this prize? (In case you’re wondering about my motivations here, I’ve been thinking over some related questions about how to spend my own money and/or other people’s that I might have influence over.)
I also second William’s question.
Sorry about not replying so long.
I don’t think the money incentive is strong enough. Nobody will do good AI safety work just for a chance at 5K dollars. The prestige incentive is stronger, but if we get fewer entries over time, the prestige incentive falls and we get even fewer entries next time etc.
Canceling was my suggestion to which others agreed. Can’t speak for others, but my main reason was that it’s not fun to work on a project without growth, even if it’s for an important cause. The choice was between canceling it and tweaking it to achieve growth, and I didn’t have good ideas for tweaks.