The following is a pretty weak form of “2021 not a return to normalcy” but also a pretty high-probability one, even ex ante: Many institutions will turn out to have been permanently damaged by the Plague and its consequences, and will not make a full recovery in 2021 (or perhaps not at all).
A couple of examples:
Orchestras, concert halls, playhouses, restaurants and other things to which people (used to) go in large numbers for recreation—all have taken huge financial hits, and some have died. Musicians, actors and chefs may have had to take other jobs, and some of those people will not be returning after the Plague is over. There may be a long-term reduction in the amount of performing arts etc. in the world.
In some industries it is now common knowledge that people can work from home something like as effectively as they can work in an office. A lot of people like it a lot better. Some businesses may turn out to prefer it too, since office space costs money. This may have all sorts of knock-on effects on commercial real estate. It may also change the nature of relationships at work for people in these industries (everyone’s spending much less time in one another’s company), with consequences I could guess but not with much confidence.
The following is a pretty weak form of “2021 not a return to normalcy” but also a pretty high-probability one, even ex ante: Many institutions will turn out to have been permanently damaged by the Plague and its consequences, and will not make a full recovery in 2021 (or perhaps not at all).
A couple of examples:
Orchestras, concert halls, playhouses, restaurants and other things to which people (used to) go in large numbers for recreation—all have taken huge financial hits, and some have died. Musicians, actors and chefs may have had to take other jobs, and some of those people will not be returning after the Plague is over. There may be a long-term reduction in the amount of performing arts etc. in the world.
In some industries it is now common knowledge that people can work from home something like as effectively as they can work in an office. A lot of people like it a lot better. Some businesses may turn out to prefer it too, since office space costs money. This may have all sorts of knock-on effects on commercial real estate. It may also change the nature of relationships at work for people in these industries (everyone’s spending much less time in one another’s company), with consequences I could guess but not with much confidence.
[EDITED to fix a typo.]