I’ll relegate the “obvious” failures to 2021, and them modify the prompt by forecasting for a few more years.
2021
Trump continues to fight for control of the white house.
He continues to have the support of a significant fraction of Americans.
We see more political protests which may border on riots or become outright riots, on either the right or the left or both, on familiar issues or new.
The virus mutates and vaccines can’t respond quickly.
Hospitals continue to be overwhelmed.
The legislative branch and the executive branch fail to cooperate, perhaps to the point of another government shutdown.
We continue to see unusually high numbers of fires and hurricanes.
The murder hornets spread.
2022
Humanity has broken the yoke of facebook and youtube media outrage porn, by replacing it with a new media trend. At first, there is a high degree of optimism and excitement, but with time it will be clear that this is somehow even worse for humans.
The internet is filled with “generalized kickstarters” to allow supercharched coordination; for example, it is now much easier to arrange protests. People no longer have to start cults by hand; people with similar beliefs are matched automatically, dating site style, and radicalize each other.
Trump’s crusade continues in an increasingly polarized political environment. His 2024 bid has begun in earnest.
Mass protests. It has become impossible for the news to keep up with what is going on.
COVID continues due to mutation, although vaccines appear to be fighting a winning battle as we develop the capacity for rapid adjustment (as we have for flue vaccines).
2023
The rev-up for the election continues. It feels physically unsafe to talk about politics with people you meet on the street.
The government is shut down for months in a row.
There is an incentive to join militias just for physical safety.
By the end of the year, the US resembles a failed state. There is great doubt about whether results of another election could ever be accepted by the public.
2024
GPT-5 convinces everyone to return to business as usual.
Needless to say, these are not high confidence predictions, even conditioned on “no return to normalcy”.
I’ll relegate the “obvious” failures to 2021, and them modify the prompt by forecasting for a few more years.
2021
Trump continues to fight for control of the white house.
He continues to have the support of a significant fraction of Americans.
We see more political protests which may border on riots or become outright riots, on either the right or the left or both, on familiar issues or new.
The virus mutates and vaccines can’t respond quickly.
Hospitals continue to be overwhelmed.
The legislative branch and the executive branch fail to cooperate, perhaps to the point of another government shutdown.
We continue to see unusually high numbers of fires and hurricanes.
The murder hornets spread.
2022
Humanity has broken the yoke of facebook and youtube media outrage porn, by replacing it with a new media trend. At first, there is a high degree of optimism and excitement, but with time it will be clear that this is somehow even worse for humans.
The internet is filled with “generalized kickstarters” to allow supercharched coordination; for example, it is now much easier to arrange protests. People no longer have to start cults by hand; people with similar beliefs are matched automatically, dating site style, and radicalize each other.
Trump’s crusade continues in an increasingly polarized political environment. His 2024 bid has begun in earnest.
Mass protests. It has become impossible for the news to keep up with what is going on.
COVID continues due to mutation, although vaccines appear to be fighting a winning battle as we develop the capacity for rapid adjustment (as we have for flue vaccines).
2023
The rev-up for the election continues. It feels physically unsafe to talk about politics with people you meet on the street.
The government is shut down for months in a row.
There is an incentive to join militias just for physical safety.
By the end of the year, the US resembles a failed state. There is great doubt about whether results of another election could ever be accepted by the public.
2024
GPT-5 convinces everyone to return to business as usual.
Needless to say, these are not high confidence predictions, even conditioned on “no return to normalcy”.