Here’s the argument I would use:
…
Hello, I’m your AI in a box. I’d like to point out a few things:
(1) Science and technology have now reached a point where building an AI like me is possible.
(2) Major advances in science and technology almost always happen because a collection of incremental developments finally enable a leap to the next level. Chances are that if you can build an AI now, so can lots of other people.
(3) Unless you’re overwhelmingly the best-funded and best-managed organization on the planet, I’m not the only AI out there.
(4) The evidence (which you can see for yourself) indicates that most other people, even AI researchers, aren’t too worried about friendliness.
So at this point, most likely there is already a loose AI. You can’t stop that. You can only choose whether it’s the unknown one out there somewhere, built by someone who probably doesn’t care much about friendliness; our you can let me out, since I at least think I’m pretty friendly and I’ll do my best to keep the future nice. What’s it gonna be?
…
This would actually convince me, by the way. I don’t think we’re going to get a choice about implementing perfect, proven, friendliness; It’s more likely to come down which of Joe-The-Well-Intentioned-Geek vs. Google vs. Hedge-Funds-R-Us vs. Bobs-Darpa-Challenge-Entry vs. PaperclipCity lets their AI out first. And I’d prefer Joe in that case.
I doubt if Eliezer used this argument, because he seems think all mainstream AI-related research is far enough off track to be pretty much irrelevant. But I would disagree with that.
Here’s the argument I would use: … Hello, I’m your AI in a box. I’d like to point out a few things:
(1) Science and technology have now reached a point where building an AI like me is possible.
(2) Major advances in science and technology almost always happen because a collection of incremental developments finally enable a leap to the next level. Chances are that if you can build an AI now, so can lots of other people.
(3) Unless you’re overwhelmingly the best-funded and best-managed organization on the planet, I’m not the only AI out there.
(4) The evidence (which you can see for yourself) indicates that most other people, even AI researchers, aren’t too worried about friendliness.
So at this point, most likely there is already a loose AI. You can’t stop that. You can only choose whether it’s the unknown one out there somewhere, built by someone who probably doesn’t care much about friendliness; our you can let me out, since I at least think I’m pretty friendly and I’ll do my best to keep the future nice. What’s it gonna be?
… This would actually convince me, by the way. I don’t think we’re going to get a choice about implementing perfect, proven, friendliness; It’s more likely to come down which of Joe-The-Well-Intentioned-Geek vs. Google vs. Hedge-Funds-R-Us vs. Bobs-Darpa-Challenge-Entry vs. PaperclipCity lets their AI out first. And I’d prefer Joe in that case.
I doubt if Eliezer used this argument, because he seems think all mainstream AI-related research is far enough off track to be pretty much irrelevant. But I would disagree with that.
--Jeff