If you want to get the show-off nerds really on board, then you could make a poast about the expected value of multiplying several distributions (maybe normal distr or pareto distr). Most people get this wrong! I still don’t know how to do it right lol. After I read it I can dunk on my friends and thereby spread the word.
For the product of random variables, there are close form solutions for some common distributions, but I guess Monte-Carlo simulations are all you need in practice (+ with Monte-Carlo can always have the whole distribution, not just the expected value).
Quick convenient monte carlo sim UI seems tractable & neglected & impactful. Like you could reply to a tweet with “hello you are talking about an X=A*B*C thing here. Here’s a histogram of X for your implied distributions of A,B,C” or whatever.
If you want to get the show-off nerds really on board, then you could make a poast about the expected value of multiplying several distributions (maybe normal distr or pareto distr). Most people get this wrong! I still don’t know how to do it right lol. After I read it I can dunk on my friends and thereby spread the word.
For the product of random variables, there are close form solutions for some common distributions, but I guess Monte-Carlo simulations are all you need in practice (+ with Monte-Carlo can always have the whole distribution, not just the expected value).
Quick convenient monte carlo sim UI seems tractable & neglected & impactful. Like you could reply to a tweet with “hello you are talking about an
X=A*B*Cthing here. Here’s a histogram of X for your implied distributions of A,B,C” or whatever.Both causal.app and getguesstimate.com have pretty good monte carlo uis
Oh sweet