DirectedEvolution comments on AllAmericanBreakfast’s Shortform

[DirectedEvolution]

A workflow for forecasting

1. Identify a topic with pressing need for informative forecasting

2. Break topic down into rough qualitative questions

3. Prioritize questions by informativeness

4. Refine high priority questions to articulate importance, provide background information, make falsifiable, define resolution criteria

5. Establish base rate

6. Identify factors to adjust base rate up and down

7. Create schedule for updating forecast over time