It’s a mistake to think that likelihood or payoff changes—each instance is independent. And the reason it’s effective is the less-explored alternate universe where you get PAID just for being the kind of person who’d accept it. In the setup, this is stated to be believed by you (meaning: you can’t just say “but it’s low probability!” that’s rejecting the premise). That said I agree with your description, with a fairly major modification. Instead of
Pascal’s Mugging just a description of one of the enormous number of ways it is possible to be dumb
I’d say Pascal’s Mugging is just a description of one of the enormous number of ways that a superior predictor/manipulator can set up human-level decision processes to fail. Adversarial situations against a better modeler are pretty much hopeless.
It’s a mistake to think that likelihood or payoff changes—each instance is independent. And the reason it’s effective is the less-explored alternate universe where you get PAID just for being the kind of person who’d accept it. In the setup, this is stated to be believed by you (meaning: you can’t just say “but it’s low probability!” that’s rejecting the premise). That said I agree with your description, with a fairly major modification. Instead of
I’d say Pascal’s Mugging is just a description of one of the enormous number of ways that a superior predictor/manipulator can set up human-level decision processes to fail. Adversarial situations against a better modeler are pretty much hopeless.