If we have the technical capacity to get into the red zone, and enough chips to make getting there easy. Then hanging out in the orange zone, coordinating civilization not to make any AI too powerful, when there are huge incentives to ramp the power up, and no one is quite sure where the serious dangers kick in...
That is, at least, an impressive civilization wide balancing act. And one I don’t think we have the competence to pull off.
It should not be possible for the ASI to know when the task is real vs sim. (which you can do by having an image generator convert real frames to a descriptor, and then regenerate them so they have the simulation artifacts...)
This is something you want, not a description of how to get it, and one that is rather tricky to achieve. That converting and then converting back trick is useful. But sure isn’t automatic success either. If there are patterns about reality that the ASI understands, but the simulator doesn’t, then the ASI can use those patterns.
Ie if the ASI understands seasons, and the simulator doesn’t, then if it’s scorching sunshine one day and snow the next, that suggests it’s the simulation. Otherwise, that suggests reality.
And if the simulation knows all patterns that the ASI does, the simulator itself is now worryingly intelligent.
robots are doing repetitive tasks that can be clearly defined.
If the task is maximally repetitive, then the robot can just follow the same path over and over.
If it’s nearly that repetitive, the robot still doesn’t need to be that smart.
I think you are trying to get a very smart AI to be so tied down and caged up that it can do a task without going rouge. But the task is so simple that current dumb robots can often do it.
For example : “remove the part from the CNC machine and place it on the output table”.
Economics test again. Minimum wage workers are easily up to a task like that. But most engineering jobs pay more than minimum wage. Which suggests most engineering in practice requires more skill than that.
I mean yes engineers do need to take parts out of the CNC machine. But they also need to be able to fix that CNC machine when a part snaps off inside it and starts getting jammed in the workings. And the latter takes up more time in practice. Or noticing that the toolhead is loose, and tightning and recalibrating it.
The techniques you are describing seem to be next level in fairly dumb automation. The stuff that some places are already doing (like boston dynamics robot dog level hardware and software), but expanded to the whole economy. I agree that you can get a moderate amount of economic growth out of that.
I don’t see you talking about any tasks that require superhuman intelligence.
If we have the technical capacity to get into the red zone, and enough chips to make getting there easy. Then hanging out in the orange zone, coordinating civilization not to make any AI too powerful, when there are huge incentives to ramp the power up, and no one is quite sure where the serious dangers kick in...
That is, at least, an impressive civilization wide balancing act. And one I don’t think we have the competence to pull off.
This is something you want, not a description of how to get it, and one that is rather tricky to achieve. That converting and then converting back trick is useful. But sure isn’t automatic success either. If there are patterns about reality that the ASI understands, but the simulator doesn’t, then the ASI can use those patterns.
Ie if the ASI understands seasons, and the simulator doesn’t, then if it’s scorching sunshine one day and snow the next, that suggests it’s the simulation. Otherwise, that suggests reality.
And if the simulation knows all patterns that the ASI does, the simulator itself is now worryingly intelligent.
If the task is maximally repetitive, then the robot can just follow the same path over and over.
If it’s nearly that repetitive, the robot still doesn’t need to be that smart.
I think you are trying to get a very smart AI to be so tied down and caged up that it can do a task without going rouge. But the task is so simple that current dumb robots can often do it.
Economics test again. Minimum wage workers are easily up to a task like that. But most engineering jobs pay more than minimum wage. Which suggests most engineering in practice requires more skill than that.
I mean yes engineers do need to take parts out of the CNC machine. But they also need to be able to fix that CNC machine when a part snaps off inside it and starts getting jammed in the workings. And the latter takes up more time in practice. Or noticing that the toolhead is loose, and tightning and recalibrating it.
The techniques you are describing seem to be next level in fairly dumb automation. The stuff that some places are already doing (like boston dynamics robot dog level hardware and software), but expanded to the whole economy. I agree that you can get a moderate amount of economic growth out of that.
I don’t see you talking about any tasks that require superhuman intelligence.