I expect it would slow down the scaling of compute infrastructure. If you’re not training any large models for six months, you’ll probably put less capital investment into the capability to train super-large models.
I don’t think the effective time lost on the scaling trajectory would be the full six months, but I wouldn’t be surprised at a 3 month effective impact.
I expect it would slow down the scaling of compute infrastructure. If you’re not training any large models for six months, you’ll probably put less capital investment into the capability to train super-large models.
I don’t think the effective time lost on the scaling trajectory would be the full six months, but I wouldn’t be surprised at a 3 month effective impact.
A 3 month delay in human extinction is about two billion QALYs and would be worth about $2 trillion in Givewell donations at $1k/QALY.
If it took two million signatures to come into effect then signing the letter would be worth a million dollars.