Looks like you’re getting decent engagement on substack. Curious if you know where those people come from? I’m not sure to what extent there’s a “forecasting scene”, or who is part of it.
Speaking as a non-forecast-specialized-person – I have a belief that it’s good to have a forecasting scene that is developing tech/skills/infrastructure. But so far, whether rightly or wrongly, I’ve mostly thought of that as something that’s good/virtuous for other people to do. A newsletter feels like something that makes sense to read if I want to keep up with the broad strokes of a field.
It does seem to me that forecasting/prediction should be more integrated into rationalist culture, but I’m not sure how to go about it.
I’m not sure to what extent there’s a “forecasting scene”, or who is part of it.
There is a forecasting scene, made out of hobbyist forecasters and more hardcore prediction market players, and a bunch of researchers. The best prediction market people tend to have fairly sharp models of the world, particularly around elections. They also have a pretty high willingness to bet.
I’ve been thinking for a while that maybe forecasting should have its own LessWrong instance, as a place to discuss and post essays (the way EA Forum and AI Alignment have their own instances); curious to get your thoughts on whether this would improve the forecasting scene by having a shared place to meet, or detract by making it harder for newcomers to hear about forecasting?
I really, really wish crossposting and crosslinking was easier between different ForumMagnum instances...
That’s sad.
Looks like you’re getting decent engagement on substack. Curious if you know where those people come from? I’m not sure to what extent there’s a “forecasting scene”, or who is part of it.
Speaking as a non-forecast-specialized-person – I have a belief that it’s good to have a forecasting scene that is developing tech/skills/infrastructure. But so far, whether rightly or wrongly, I’ve mostly thought of that as something that’s good/virtuous for other people to do. A newsletter feels like something that makes sense to read if I want to keep up with the broad strokes of a field.
It does seem to me that forecasting/prediction should be more integrated into rationalist culture, but I’m not sure how to go about it.
Sure, see here: https://imgur.com/a/pMR7Qw4
There is a forecasting scene, made out of hobbyist forecasters and more hardcore prediction market players, and a bunch of researchers. The best prediction market people tend to have fairly sharp models of the world, particularly around elections. They also have a pretty high willingness to bet.
I’ve been thinking for a while that maybe forecasting should have its own LessWrong instance, as a place to discuss and post essays (the way EA Forum and AI Alignment have their own instances); curious to get your thoughts on whether this would improve the forecasting scene by having a shared place to meet, or detract by making it harder for newcomers to hear about forecasting?
I really, really wish crossposting and crosslinking was easier between different ForumMagnum instances...