As mentioned the ABCT has some good points in explaining why things might happen. But I also think the coordination problem over time in terms of economic activity will inherently get things wrong, so downturns will occur.
There have also been some evidence that political event, like various elections, can influence.
I don’t think any lend themselves to true function precision (echoing the time problem moses mentions).
I would ask if you’re inquiring based on financial market fluctuations are if you’re asking about real business cycles (recession/depression and expansion/contraction) events. I think characterizing real economic cycles as driven by a random process would be problematic—even if one might suggest that the sale of any given can of soup might be modeled that way.
As mentioned the ABCT has some good points in explaining why things might happen. But I also think the coordination problem over time in terms of economic activity will inherently get things wrong, so downturns will occur.
There have also been some evidence that political event, like various elections, can influence.
I don’t think any lend themselves to true function precision (echoing the time problem moses mentions).
I would ask if you’re inquiring based on financial market fluctuations are if you’re asking about real business cycles (recession/depression and expansion/contraction) events. I think characterizing real economic cycles as driven by a random process would be problematic—even if one might suggest that the sale of any given can of soup might be modeled that way.