Magic not needed… someone sees that SBF offers 3 billion to buy a piece of twitter, gets spooked and aggregates it on the prediction market → this raises the probability that it’s doing something shady (then any other assessment will be aggregated) now when FTX offers EA some money, we know the probability of them doing something shady… have some info to make a better decision (I noticed Scott Alexander writing about this)
If this sort of evidence wasn’t enough to significantly drop the prices of FTT token on the financial market why would it be enough to significantly drop the confidence in the company on prediction market?
Regular stock markets are already extremely liquid prediction markets for the trust in the companies.
Magic not needed… someone sees that SBF offers 3 billion to buy a piece of twitter, gets spooked and aggregates it on the prediction market → this raises the probability that it’s doing something shady (then any other assessment will be aggregated) now when FTX offers EA some money, we know the probability of them doing something shady… have some info to make a better decision (I noticed Scott Alexander writing about this)
If this sort of evidence wasn’t enough to significantly drop the prices of FTT token on the financial market why would it be enough to significantly drop the confidence in the company on prediction market?
Regular stock markets are already extremely liquid prediction markets for the trust in the companies.